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重新考察贸易创造与转移：模型不确定性和自然贸易伙伴效应AI 解读

SUMMARY The effect of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on trade flows is subject to model uncertainty stemming from the diverse and even contradictory effects suggested by the theoretical PTA literature. The existing empirical literature has produced remarkably disparate results and the wide variety of empirical approaches reflects the uncertainty about the ‘correct’ set of explanatory variables that ought to be included in the analysis. To account for the model…

BMA中如何使用交互项：对相关评论的回应AI 解读

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma (How different is Africa? A comment on Masanjala and Papageorgiou. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011) shows that the results in Masanjala and Papageorgiou (Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging. Journal of Applied Econometrics 2008; 23(5): 671–682) are sensitive to an alternative prior model structure in considering interaction terms. As a side issue, the algorithm for…

贝叶斯模型平均中的默认先验与预测表现：增长决定因素应用AI 解读

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has become widely accepted as a way of accounting for model uncertainty, notably in regression models for identifying the determinants of economic growth. To implement BMA the user must specify a prior distribution in two parts: a prior for the regression parameters and a prior over the model space. Here we address the issue of which default prior to use for BMA in linear regression. We compare 12 candidate parameter priors: the unit…