Forecasting with an econometric model: Some recent results using the national institute model
使用计量模型预测：National Institute 模型的若干结果
Abstract It is widely believed that the large econometric models cannot be used for forecasting without considerable intervention on the part of the forecaster. In this paper we challenge this view by reproducing a number of recent forecasts published by the National Institute but without the ad hoc interventions used at the time. We show that in no case would the forecast, produced by the model used mechanically, have been radically different from that actually published.…