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Summary It is well known that there is a large degree of uncertainty around Rogoff's consensus half‐life of the real exchange rate. To obtain a more efficient estimator, we develop a system method that combines the Taylor rule and a standard exchange rate model to estimate half‐lives. Further, we propose a median unbiased estimator for the system method based on the generalized method of moments with non‐parametric grid bootstrap confidence intervals. Applying the method to…

GARCH(1,1) 准最大似然估计量的渐近理论AI 解读

This paper investigates the sampling behavior of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the Gaussian GARCH(1,1) model. The rescaled variable (the ratio of the disturbance to the conditional standard deviation) is not required to be Gaussian nor independent over time, in contrast to the current literature. The GARCH process may be integrated (α + β = 1), or even mildly explosive (α + β > 1). A bounded conditional fourth moment of the rescaled variable is sufficient for the…