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高度持久预测变量下的半参数检验AI 解读

We address the issue of semiparametric efficiency in the bivariate regression problem with a highly persistent predictor, where the joint distribution of the innovations is regarded an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter. Using a structural representation of the limit experiment and exploiting invariance relationships therein, we construct invariant point-optimal tests for the regression coefficient of interest. This approach naturally leads to a family of feasible tests…

积分波动率及相关过程的有效估计AI 解读

We derive nonparametric efficiency bounds for regular estimators of integrated smooth transformations of instantaneous variances, in particular, integrated power variance. We find that realized variance attains the efficiency bound for integrated variance under both regular and irregular sampling schemes. For estimating higher powers such as integrated quarticity, the block-based procedures of Mykland and Zhang (2009) can get arbitrarily close to the nonparametric bounds,…

含趋势协整模型的伪高斯与局部最优秩检验AI 解读

This paper provides pseudo-Gaussian and locally optimal rank-based tests for the cointegration rank in linear cointegrated error-correction models with common trends and i.i.d. elliptical innovations. The proposed tests are asymptotically distribution-free, hence their validity does not depend on the actual distribution of the innovations. The proposed rank-based tests depend on the choice of scores, associated with a reference density that can freely be chosen. Under…

AR–GARCH 类模型的残差秩设定检验AI 解读

This paper derives the asymptotic distribution for a number of rank-based and classical residual specification tests in AR–GARCH type models. We consider tests for the null hypotheses of no linear and quadratic serial residual autocorrelation, residual symmetry, and no structural breaks. We also apply our method to backtesting Value-at-Risk. For these tests we show that, generally, no size correction is needed in the asymptotic test distribution when applied to AR–GARCH…

一类简单的分布无关秩单位根检验AI 解读

We propose a class of distribution-free rank-based tests for the null hypothesis of a unit root. This class is indexed by the choice of a reference density g, which need not coincide with the unknown actual innovation density f. The validity of these tests, in terms of exact finite-sample size, is guaranteed, irrespective of the actual underlying density, by distribution-freeness. Those tests are locally and asymptotically optimal under a particular asymptotic scheme, for…

随机时间下收益波动率度量中的因果效应AI 解读

We provide a structural approach to identify instantaneous causality effects between durations and stock price volatility. So far, in the literature, instantaneous causality effects have either been excluded or cannot be identified separately from Granger type causality effects. By giving explicit moment conditions for observed returns over (random) duration intervals, we are able to identify an instantaneous causality effect. The documented causality effect has significant…

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