Semiparametric (Distribution-Free) Testing of the Expectations Hypothesis in a Parimutuel Gambling Market
彩池博彩市场中预期假说的半参数（分布无关）检验
The expectations hypothesis maintains that a current forward or futures price should be an unbiased forecast of the expected future price. This paper tests the expectations hypothesis in the parimutuel gambling market for greyhound racing parametric and semiparametric estimators. Parimutuel gambling markets are similar to speculative asset markets in many regards. Conventional maximum likelihood tests of asset pricing require a priori specification of the statistical…