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含 MA 单位根的 ARMA 模型估计
This paper investigates the behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of a Gaussian autoregressive moving average model with a unit root in the moving average polynomial. The results are primarily of interest in testing hypotheses that involve moving average unit roots as, for example, when testing for stationarity of a series.
回归结构稳定性的多重决策理论分析
Using the theory of multiple decisions, this paper conducts an analysis of structural stability in location and variance for the linear-regression model. It shows that both cusum and cusum-of-squares techniques are in certain senses optimal. However, the same tests are optimal for changes in location and variance. It is also shown that there is an inherent contradiction between the use of recursive residuals and cusum techniques. The concept of a localized Bayes rule is…