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利用全球、发达与新兴经济活动潜在因子识别油价冲击AI 解读

Summary This paper proposes an identification strategy for international oil price shocks while accounting for the heterogeneous sources of oil demand from global, developed, and emerging economies. Unlike existing works, we isolate global oil demand shocks, associated with a global real economic activity factor, from oil demand shocks originating specifically from developed and emerging economies, associated with real economic activity factors within these two groups of…

发达与新兴经济体实际活动的共同波动：全球与群组特有国际因子的检验AI 解读

Summary Although globalization has shaped the world economy in recent decades, emerging economies have experienced impressive growth compared to developed economies, suggesting specific comovements within developed and emerging business cycles. Using observed developed and emerging real economy activity variables, we investigate whether the latter assertion can be supported by observed data. Based on a two‐level factor model, we assume these activity variables can be…