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不可观测成分时间序列模型的诊断检验AI 解读

Diagnostic checking of time-series models is normally carried out using the innovations, that is the one-step ahead prediction errors. In an unobserved components model, other sets of residuals are available. These auxiliary residuals are estimators of the disturbances associated.with the unobserved components. The article shows how the properties of the auxiliary residuals may be obtained, how they are related to each other and to the innovations, and how they can be used…

似不相关时间序列方程与同质性检验AI 解读

A multivariate structural time series model made up of unobserved components such as trends and seasonals is formulated. A homogeneous system, in which any linear combination of the observations follows the same time series process, is shown to correspond to a multivariate structural model in which the covariance matrices of the disturbances are proportional. A homogeneous model is considerably easier to estimate than the more general model and a score test of homogeneity…