Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting
寻找遗失的高频预测：美联储预测效率的新数据与证据
Summary We introduce a new dataset of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation forecasts produced by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In contrast to the eight Greenbook forecasts a year the staff produce for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, our dataset has roughly weekly forecasts. We use these data to study whether the staff forecasts efficiently. Prespecified…