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横截面相关下的面板单位根检验：有限样本表现与应用AI 解读

This paper examines the finite sample properties of three testing regimes for the null hypothesis of a panel unit root against stationary alternatives in the presence of cross-sectional correlation. The regimes of Bai and Ng (2004), Moon and Perron (2004) and Pesaran (2007) are assessed in the presence of multiple factors and also other non-standard situations. The behaviour of some information criteria used to determine the number of factors in a panel is examined and new…

探索经济时间序列：贝叶斯图形方法AI 解读

Many macroeconomic time series exhibit non-stationary behaviour. When modelling such series an important problem is to assess the nature of this non-stationary behaviour. Initial interest centred on two types of linear non-stationary models, namely those for which the removal of a trend induces stationarity and those for which taking the first difference produces a stationary series. The latter are referred to as unit root models. More recently, other models such as state…

经济时间序列能通过差分变得平稳吗？AI 解读

This paper considers a class of nonstationary varying coefficient autoregressive models which allow stochastic variability in the autoregressive root. It is argued that such models provide a better description of the behaviour of macroeconomic variables than fixed unit root autoregressive models as they allow more general forms of nonstationarity. We construct a test of the null hypothesis of a fixed unit root against the alternative of a fixed unit root against the…

时间序列差分平稳性的检验AI 解读

This paper addresses the problem of testing the hypothesis that an observed series is difference stationary. The alternative hypothesis is that the series is another nonstationary process; in particular, an autoregressive model with a random parameter is used. A locally best invariant test is developed assuming Gaussianity, and a representation of its asymptotic distribution as a mixture of Brownian motions is found. The performance of the test in finite samples is…

构建线性时间序列模型的候选集合AI 解读

The paper applies selection criteria to order determination in linear time series models in a less mechanical fashion than is often found. This is achieved via posterior odds ratios and by applying concepts of grades of evidence advanced by Jeffreys (1961). It is shown how alternative specifications may be compared and this leads to the development of a practical method for determining a portfolio of different models, each of which may be regarded as reasonable for the data…

确定线性时间序列模型的候选集合AI 解读

The paper applies selection criteria to order determination in linear time series models in a less mechanical fashion than is often found. This is achieved via posterior odds ratios and by applying concepts of grades of evidence advanced by Jeffreys (1961). It is shown how alternative specifications may be compared and this leads to the development of a practical method for determining a portfolio of different models, each of which may be regarded as reasonable for the data…

含外生变量的向量时间序列模型误设检验AI 解读

SUMMARY In this paper we consider the application of hypothesis testing procedures to ARMAX systems. The score, or Lagrangian multiplier, principle is used to obtain mis-specification tests appropriate to these models. The structure of the information or sensitivity matrix is investigated in order to discuss the identifiability of alternative models and is used to show the existence of a set of admissible alternatives that are locally equivalent to one another. This notion…

时间序列模型的后验赔率AI 解读

This paper is concerned with model selection in time series analysis. A Bayesian approach is adopted to investigate various decision criteria previously advocated. The discussion is conducted in the context of a class of nonlinear time series models of sufficient generality to encompass a wide range of processes currently of interest.

时间序列模型的后验赔率AI 解读

This paper is concerned with model selection in time series analysis. A Bayesian approach is adopted to investigate various decision criteria previously advocated. The discussion is conducted in the context of a class of nonlinear time series models of sufficient generality to encompass a wide range of processes currently of interest.

多元时间序列模型的诊断检验AI 解读

This paper is concerned with the development and application of diagnostic checks for vector linear time series models. A hypothesis testing procedure based upon the score, or Lagrangean multiplier, principle is advocated and the distributions of the test statistic both under the null hypothesis and under a Pitman sequence of alternatives are discussed. Consideration of alternative models with singular sensitivity matrices when the null hypothesis is true leads to an…

线性时间序列模型检验的一种方法AI 解读

The purpose of this paper is to develop diagnostic tests for open-loop transfer function models with autoregressive-moving average stochastic disturbances using the efficient scores procedure. The tests proposed are asymptotically equivalent to those based upon the likelihood ratio principle and have the advantage that they do not involve a heavy computational burden. Consideration is given both to the standard case of nonsingular information matrices and to the situation…

拟合自回归移动平均模型的设定检验AI 解读

This paper provides an extension of the application of score, or Lagrangian multiplier, tests to diagnostic checking of ARMA, autoregressive-moving average, models. The score test procedure for testing the null hypothesis of an ARMA( p,q ) process against certain ARMA ( p⊞r, q⊞s ) alternatives is considered and shown to be of the form of a pure significance test.

已拟合自回归移动平均模型的设定检验AI 解读

This paper provides an extension of the application of score, or Lagrangian multiplier, tests to diagnostic checking of ARMA, autoregressive-moving average, models. The score test procedure for testing the null hypothesis of an ARMA( p,q ) process against certain ARMA ( p⊞r, q⊞s ) alternatives is considered and shown to be of the form of a pure significance test.